By JEREMY PLONK of The HorsePlayer Magazine

KENTUCKY DERBY MAY 5
PREAKNESS MAY 19
BELMONT JUNE 9

- Friday, Feb. 23, 2007

THREE THINGS YOU WON'T READ ANYWHERE ELSE

Opinions are like fighting crime. Without conviction, neither is worth the effort involved.

1 - One bad prep can ruin a run toward the Derby. In an era where trainers give their horses two, three or four races during a four-month run-up to the Triple Crown, every performance is magnified in both reality and public perception. If you get nothing out of a race, you lose 25 to 33 to 50 percent of your season's seasoning. Think about it. Then explain to me why Todd Pletcher is leaning toward only one more start for RAVEL (in the Santa Anita Derby). If he gets worked up in the paddock, dwelts at the start, or catches an off track, how can he be remotely close to the live Kentucky Derby threat he should be?
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2 - The whistling sound you hear out of Hot Springs is the hot air from trainer Larry Jones following the Southwest Stakes. HARD SPUN's conditioner threatened to take his stable star on the road for the remainder of his Triple Crown prep season after complaining about how deep the Oaklawn track was on the outside. I guess Jones was so blinded by his heavily favored heart throb going down in flames that he failed to see runner-up OFFICER ROCKET turbo past him ON THE OUTSIDE like he was tied to the sixteenth pole. Sour grapes never taste good, LJ.

3 - For every "the last time this happened..." comment shared somewhere, it seems there's a turf writer or figure-maker running to dismiss it. Well, as Maverick and Goose had the "need for speed" in Top Gun, I feel the need to "defend the trends." If you think trends have no place in handicapping, then you also believe that trainer patterns, horse-for-course and every other handicapping variable doesn't exist. EVERY handicapping variable is a trend. Even a hard figure is only used in a trendy context, whereas you're trying to follow a pattern/progression that will lead to what figure that horse will run this time. Pattern/progression....hmm sounds like a...trend.

HIGH FIVES

Top 5 performances seen so far this season by race type:

Maiden Race	Allowance	Stakes
1. Vitruvius - GP (new)	1. Spin Master - GP	1. Ravel - Sham - SA
2. Texas Voyager - SA	2. Forty Grams- FG	2. Notional - Risen Star - FG
3. Flying First Class - OP (new)	3. Delightful Kiss - GP	2. Adore the Gold - Swale - GP
4. Street Magician - GP	4. The Hitman - OP	4. Nobiz Like Shobiz - Holy Bull - GP
5. Exhale - SA	5. Wafi City - Aqu (new)	5. Buffalo Man - Spectacular Bid - GP

THIS WEEK'S FEARLESS FORECAST

Each week this section includes a look at what's coming this weekend (maidens, allowances, stakes), including picks of the major stakes.

This is one of the last slow stakes weekends of the spring, providing only Saturday's grassy Hallandale Beach at Gulfstream and the Mountain Valley sprint at Oaklawn. Let's take a look at some undercard races of note before diving into the stakes pool.

Gulfstream's fourth on Saturday features the debut of PICK SIX for Shug McGaughey. The Dynaformer colt is out of G1 winner Oh What A Windfall and owns a solid win-early pedigree. He's training like he can run, but don't expect the patient and professional Phipps family to get Triple Crown trail-giddy no matter how things turn out in the debut. Keeper Hill's baby, SHAAMI, stopped on a dime in his debut and must improve rapidly. The same verse can be sung for SAMMARCO, who pressed one of the best maiden heats of the GP meeting Jan. 27 vs. BLUE BULLET and STREET MAGICIAN before wilting. GP's Race 6 is the second division of this 6-furlong maiden sprint, sporting no less than 9 debuters in a field of 11. Todd Pletcher trainee HESOGOODWITHMONEY will take some action as a $350K son of Forest Wildcast. 'MONEY is out of Gold and Lively, an unraced mare who is half-sister to Blue Grass and Fountain of Youth winner High Yield. But the real nuts in this race could very well be TAHIR, a Stronach home-bred by Touch Gold from the female family of Kentucky Derby runner-up Strodes Creek. He's been working bullets and lures Edgar Prado for the first foray.

Saturday's Race 10 finale at Gulfstream offers maidens at a 1-turn mile. We were hoping to see REATA'S SHADOW stretch out around 2 turns for his second start. The promising Joe Orseno charge did smoke a bullet half-mile in :47-3/5 last Saturday for this, so perhaps speed will be inserted despite the same distance. $1.4 million purchase SAMHOON had better improve on the 29-length drubbing he took in his debut for Shadwell Stable. 7-for-7 in the money, MOST DISTINGUISHED needs to graduate with honors for Nick Zito to advance on the trail. Meanwhile, DR GOOGLES BOOGLES could give us a better line on Mike Trombetta's impressive maiden winner STREET MAGICIAN. This Dale Romans trainee was a distant third to 'MAGIC in his debut.

Oaklawn's Saturday card opens with a one-mile maiden heat that could produce a potential Rebel starter three weeks from now. Any later in the season, however, and these maiden races will start to lose their Triple Crown trail sting. Team Steppenwolfer (third in last year's Kentucky Derby) brings PERFECT VOW back to the races in this one. The son of Broken Vow was last seen finishing a strong second in a rugged Aqueduct maiden heat in November (before all the big wheels went south). Danny Peitz puts the blinkers on, and a strong series of works indicate that Peitz knows if they want to get to the show, they have to get through this hurdle Saturday. Tim Ritchey also is pressing the gas pedal with TRIDENT'S CROWN, adding blinkers to this stretch-running Victory Gallop colt in hopes of a future stakes fling. Among the challengers will be D. Wayne Lukas' first timer OUT OF ACES, a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Level Playingfield. Also keep close tabs on come-backing PRO THUNDER for Bob Holthus. The Thunder Gulch colt is out of Holthus' star sprint mare, Mama's Pro, who was a multiple stakes winner over this Oaklawn track.

Saturday's 2nd at Aqueduct appears to be a sprinter's lot. Darley debuter ELUSIVE WARNING hasn't busted any watches in the morning as a $450K purchase. BLACK JACK BLUES (Gary Contessa) and LAST TRAIN BABE (the suspended Rick Dutrow) exit a 2-3 maiden finish behind Maryland shipper RAVALO, who stunk it up Thursday at Laurel by beating one horse home in his entry-level allowance try.

The only Saturday 3-year-old action at Santa Anita comes in a Race 10 turf maiden mile. Looks like a decent grass heat with little impact on the trail. GO ALL IN, a $575K Giant's Causeway colt, debuts for Dick Mandella. Expect a big effort from second-timer LEGATE for Dave Hofmans, who adds blinkers.

Oaklawn's Race 7 on Sunday drew 8 maiden sprinters, including debuter MOYER'S POND for Tony Reinstedler. By Derby champ Monarchos, he's out of a Wild Again mare who hails from a successful win-early family. Anees' debut baby, KIAMICHI, is working solidly for capable trainer Tom Bohannon.

(Since many tracks have not entered for Sunday as of our Friday a.m. posting, we'll update any Sunday entries / previews of note here on Saturday a.m.)

Update Saturday: No significant Sunday races after viewing the entries.


Stakes Previews

MOUNTAIN VALLEY (OP): Six sprinters dash six panels in this $50,000 heat, which has propelled the likes of Afleet Alex in recent years. Three return from the opening-day Dixieland, including longshot 1-3 finishers IRISH DREAMER and SIR FIVE STAR. Off-the-turf Black Gold Stakes winner PROBATION READY joins the fray from Fair Grounds for Steve Asmussen, as does recent Oaklawn allowance winners STORM FORCE (D. Wayne Lukas) and THE HITMAN (C.R. Trout). Country music star Toby Keith's GO POPPA FOOZE has fizzled in his last two, and one has to wonder what impact his positive milkshake test from the Jean Laffit has had on his last two efforts. The one-time Cole Norman trainee now races for assistant Jorge Lara. Even if you're skeptical, and why wouldn't you be, 'POPPA could be awfully dangerous gunning for the lead from the outside draw vs. a field with no other confirmed need-the-lead types. PROBATION READY's pedigree suggests an affinity for the track in his initial Hot Springs bath. The only horse to beat him in his last 3 starts was TEUFLESBERG, last Monday's Southwest Stakes champ. Strong-finishing jockey Luis Quinonez has long ridden top Asmussen trainees and fits this one's style well. STORM FORCE wheels back on 15 days' rest after a bit of an erratic stretch run. He loves the track, obviously, and Lukas has been smoking with his 3YOs at OP. Mixed signals here, given his 1-mile workout in-between starts (Is DWL trying to build stamina or fire back on short rest because he's ready to roll?). The horse with the most upside just may be THE HITMAN. I absolutely loved his professional allowance win, ranking it among the best seen this year anywhere. His closest pursuer, FRONT COURT, came back to win impressively last weekend, feathering THE HITMAN's cap even more. You hear the cliche, "Any one of these can win it," far too many times in racing. But, this is a race in which a great case could be made for any of the six when considering pace, potential and past performance. When I can get a price on horses in which I relish their potential and pace set-up, that's the way I lean.

HALLANDALE BEACH (GP): This $100,000 turf stakes includes 3 Triple Crown nominees. FERNANDO PO has won two grass stakes for Mike Hushion and could tempt the connections with a return to dirt if he can record a smashing win Saturday. Laurel Futurity runner-up RUTLEDGE CAT is winless in 3 dirt tries, and trainer Graham Motion likely keeps him lawn-mowing regardless. It's surprising to see Edgar Prado leave one of his money trainers like Motion to ride a horse for Todd Pletcher. Prado's new mount, TWILIGHT METEOR, was last seen winning the off-the-turf Bourbon County last fall at Keeneland. What's interesting here is that Pletcher go-to rider John Velazquez hops off the proven stakes winner to ride stablemate PLEASANT STRIKE, an 8-length maiden winner in his grass debut Jan. 31. PLEASANT STRIKE's main-track tries have included a solid second to SUMMER DOLDRUMS, the eventual runaway winner of the Whirlaway, but he's likely to remain on grass as a son of Smart Strike, who produced Pletcher's star turfer English Channel. In another interesting jockey move, Rafael Bejarano hops off FERNANDO PO to ride recent allowance winner SEDGEFIELD, yet another promising son of Smart Strike. Calder grass fiend SOLDIER'S DANCER edged SEDGEFIELD in the Tropical Park Derby with a fantastic turn of foot the final furlong. From a handicapping standpoint, this jockey's game of musical saddles makes for a brain-frying experience. Calder runners have excelled all spring, so let's lean on that consistent thread and go with the Tropical Park Derby champ.

Mountain Valley Picks:
1- #1 THE HITMAN
2- #4 PROBATION READY
3- #6 GO POPPA FOOZE

Hallandale Beach Picks:
1- #7 SOLDIER'S DANCER
2- #8 TWILIGHT METEOR
3- #2 FERNANDO PO


How'd we do last week? 4 races, 1 won by our top pick and 2 by our second-listed choice.

How are we doing on the season? 20 races, 7 on-top winners (35%) and 9 second-choice winners (80% from top 2).

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EVERYONE'S A CRITIC

Each week this section includes analysis of last week's major races, allowances and maidens.

Major suspicions confirmed. The mask was pulled off Smarty Jones imposter HARD SPUN in Monday's Southwest at Oaklawn, as the PA-bred's lack of finishing vigor made him a lackluster fourth in the one-mile event. His :26-4/5 final quarter in the Lecomte should have been a tipoff, although trip handicappers will rightly note he raced four wide on both turns in the Southwest. When you're 1-to-2 on the board and chocked full of speed, you need to overcome this. Push-button horses don't find themselves four wide on both turns. HARD SPUN took a major hit to his Triple Crown gut with this one, and the haymaker was thrown by a solid group of middleweights - not heavyweights - at that. And don't accuse me of a regional bias...I'm a PA-bred myself and find Oaklawn to be among my absolute favorite tracks having worked in that region.

TEUFLESBERG won the Southwest wire-to-wire in dawdling fractions for the class (:23.68, :47.90, 1:12.06). The final quarter-mile in :26.14 was uninspiring, while only miler OFFICER ROCKET closed into the margin for the runner-up spot. FORTY GRAMS disappointed me, stalking in second while in perfect position in the two-path. The slow pace in front of him allowed a much more-seasoned TEUFLESBERG to spurt clear at the quarter pole and carry the day. To his credit, though, FORTY GRAMS did out-finish HARD SPUN as the two laid on each other down the stretch. He didn't rise to stardom as expected in this one, but FORTY GRAMS didn't exactly empty the bandwagon with his effort. One to tab from the Southwest is XCHANGER. He finished fifth, not far out of the final hunt, and absolutely had to have needed the race. Training in the brutal Maryland winter, the Fair Hill invader had not one, but two breaks in his workout pattern of 10-plus days in the last five weeks. Expect XCHANGER to be a bigger force in his next start for Mark Shuman.

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY took care of business in Saturday's Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, though the Todd Pletcher trainee didn't rekindle any warm-and-fuzzies.  He handled an overmatched field whose stakes experience totalled three prior off-the-board stakes tries for JAMES WILFRED and a Michigan-bred stakes win by sprinter ALL I CAN GET. The Davis went in solid, rhythmic splits of :23.85, :24.16, :24.36, :25.10 and :06.80, so it was a perfect comeback race for the winner - not too taxing, not too lax as to be worthless. The final time of 1:44.27 compared about six lengths faster than the $12,500 claimers who opened the card. The Tampa Bay Derby will be next for the highly rated ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, who then should be well-set for the Blue Grass. All systems appear 'go' for this one, who rates a touch below RAVEL in my estimation in the powerful Pletcher barn - but could surpass that one with a better-seasoned prep schedule.

Last week's minor stakes, the Turf Paradise and Borderland derbies, don't appear to have any star quality for the classics. Steve Asmussen's TAKEDOWN made a decent 2-turn debut by winning at Sunland, but it's impossible to overlook the fact that this colt was offered for a claiming tag last fall. Owners Ackerley Brothers Farm also raced TAKEDOWN's outstanding, stakes-winning sprint dam Little Sister with Asmussen. So, the fact they were willing to part with this one last fall means he's either not that good or not that sound. In Arizona, Craig Dollase's heavily favored GREGORIAN BAY gave jockey Glen Corbett little response when heavily worked the final three furlongs as he failed to reel in a leg-weary, wire-to-wire local winner in TIE ROD. Perhaps the biggest news to take from this race is that California Derby winner BWANA BULL had beaten GREGORIAN BAY last time out, and this TuP result may be a knock on that Jerry Hollendorfer trainee's reputation.

Sprinter WOLLASTON BAY wired the 6-horse Caposella Stakes at Aqueduct t on Monday in  1:10.75 (less than a length faster than a $60,000 maiden claiming group of 3-year-olds on the same card).

As for last week's undercard races, Gulfstream debut winner VITRUVIUS ran one of the year's absolute best maiden races when winning Saturday's 7th by a neck over FEARLESS VISION. The sophomores stopped the clock in 1:25.13, less than a tick slower than older allowance runners a few races prior (a field that included last year's Preakness third-place finisher Hemingway's Key). Jimmy Jerkens trains this half-brother to Corinthian and Desert Hero, two major Triple Crown trail forces of recent years. Patrick Reynolds' runner-up FEARLESS VISION bumped with the winner in a stretch-long dogfight which saw the two open up six lengths on the balance of a regal field. Promising colts ADVANCED SIGNS and COUNSELLED both encountered traffic troubles on the turn.

Another stellar maiden performance came Monday from D. Wayne Lukas' FLYING FIRST CLASS in the 6th at Oaklawn. The Cal-bred by Perfect Mandate rocketed from the gate and ran like a runaway train the opening furlong. He relaxed some on the turn, and then cornered like a diamond cutter while drawing off to an 8-length victory. His time of 1:09.92 was absolutely, positively astounding. He ran about 9 lengths faster than a 3-year-old allowance on the same card. This is the kind of visual performance you yearn to see from a young horse. Lukas said the Rebel-Arkansas Derby path is on the immediate agenda. Tim Ritchey's debuter VISTA MOON clearly was second best and won't be a maiden much longer. Hands down, the best maiden race at Oaklawn in 2007 to date.

WAFI CITY looked awfully good winning for Kiaran McLaughlin in a solid allowance sprint at Aqueduct on Saturday. The time of 1:10.56 included a powerful :24.17 final quarter and was completed more than four lengths faster than the same-day Dearly Precious Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The son of E. Dubai looks like a natural Gotham fit for his first distance attempt. McLaughlin also struck paydirt with TEIDE in Sunday's 2-turn maiden route in Race 2. The 1 mile and 70-yard time of 1:42.87 was two lengths faster than an older filly and mare allowance later in the day.

As for another trainer with a twice-as-nice weekend, (we warned you last month that he'd heat up this spring) David Hofmans won two allowance races on Sunday's card at Santa Anita. LEVEL RED scored a 2-turn victory and now has run 1st or 2nd in each of his last 4 starts, only losing to graded stakes stalwarts RAVEL and LAW BREAKER. This is a son of Aptitude out of a Strawberry Road mare who could be getting good at the right time. A few races later, Hofmans' DESERT CODE won a downhill turf sprint against a top-notch field by more than two lengths,. This son of E Dubai was fourth in the San Miguel last time to E Z WARRIOR. Of the two Hofmans honchos, lean toward LEVEL RED as a classics prospect.

There's no telling just how good Allen Jerkens' BLUE BULLET might be. He demolished an allowance sprint field Monday at Gulfstream by 8 lengths, though 6 of his 7 rivals had previously appeared for a claiming tag. This son of Red Bullet is now 2-for-2, and he did beat the very impressive next-out winner STREET MAGICIAN back on Jan. 27. The fact that he's a half-brother to G1-winning sprinter Kelly Kip probably means he'll stay short, but Red Bullet was a Preakness winner and grandsire Unbridled a Derby champ.

Santa Anita's 3rd on Saturday was a terribly disappointing handicapping chore as our much-thought-of FINE FLYER went off at a delicious 5-to-1 and then failed to menace in the lane when fourth in this sprint. Note to bettors: Two turns, two turns! Race winner SAINTLY SON graduated in his fourth start for Jeff Mullins after failing to keep up with electric sprint prospect TEXAS VOYAGER last time out. Bobby Frankel's IN THE WOODS made a strong debut and is a sprinter to watch after missing the win by a lip.

Also on Saturday, HOW SWEET HE IS scored a nose decision over Tom Albertrani's odds-on MARINA MARKET in a 2-turn allowance at Aqueduct. The Tim Ritvo-trained winner flexed even more muscle for the Calder corps; he's now 2-for-2 since coming north to New York. Though he's by A.P. Indy, the beaten favorite MARINA MARKET appears short on toughness in the lane as he got away with easy fractions on the lead and still was nailed in the final jump.

We were very high on the Oaklawn allowance win Jan. 27 by THE HITMAN, and that confidence was strengthened Monday when his closest pursuer, FRONT COURT, came back to impressively dispatch a 6-furlong allowance crew despite a 4-wide move on the far turn. This looks like a consistent sprinter by Doneraile Court for Chris Richard, though FRONT COURT's time of 1:11.73 was dwarfed by Lukas' maiden wowzer, FLYING FIRST CLASS.

Saturday's Race 10 finale at Oaklawn was a 2-turn allowance that should soon be forgotten. QUITE ACCEPTABLE's time of 1:47.13 not only paled to the 1:44.57 clocked in the previous race (3-year-old fillies in the Pippin Stakes), but it also was no match for the 1:45.48 by $5,000 claimers earlier on the card. Also reserve your excitement for Doug O'Neill's Cal-bred allowance sprint winner SOMETHING SONIC from Saturday's 2nd race at Santa Anita. They crawled home in :07.24 the final sixteenth in this 6-1/2 furlong race, which was clocked slower than a maiden claiming heat in the day's opener.


PUT 'EM IN THE GATE

Can't wait for May 5? This section ranks my Top 20 and puts horses in the gate if the race was this weekend. Remember, this isn't about how they'll be on Derby Day, but rather how they rate today with Derby ability at 1-1/4 miles a main factor. This will be a fluid list over the course of the spring.

Think I'm off my rocker? Send your Top 20 list to me, plonk@horseplayerdaily.com, and I'll pick one fan's list each week to appear in Countdown to the Crown right next to mine. Please put "TOP 20" in the subject line and include your state of residence!

HARD SPUN (previously No. 7) and FORTY GRAMS (10th last week) take tumbles this week. While I like some of the other maiden races better this year around the country, for Derby purposes, EXHALE remains the highest-ranked of those maiden winners at No. 17 until his reappearance - though we're hearing he could be injured and off the trail. Stay tuned. CHELOKEE has been slow to work back since his solid return race, and thus dropped from my Top 20. SUMMER DOLDRUMS moves into the mix.

It appears that the Countdown is big in the Show Me State. For the second straight week, a Missourian is selected as the published reader's poll. Welcome, Debbe.

Jeremy's Rankings:

1	Ravel	6	Any Given Saturday	11	Circular Quay	16	Exhale
2	Nobiz Like Shobiz	7	Grapelli	12	Birdbirdistheword	17	Hard Spun
3	Zanjero	8	Notional	13	Stormello	18	Scat Daddy
4	Street Sense	9	Buffalo Man	14	Liquidity	19	Joe Got Even
5	Great Hunter	10	Adore the Gold	15	Forty Grams	20	Summer Doldrums (new)

Reader Rankings (By Debbe J. in Missouri):

1	Nobiz Like Shobiz	6	Any Given Saturday	11	Liquidity	16	Exhale
2	Ravel	7	Circular Quay	12	Grapelli	17	Adore the Gold
3	Street Sense	8	C P West	13	Summer Doldrums	18	Rags to Riches (f)
4	Great Hunter	9	Stormello	14	Drums of Thunder	19	Soaring By
5	Notional	10	Curlin	15	Zanjero	20	Belgravia

SEND IN THE CLONES

Each week I provide a horse that looks similar in form/style/performance to a familiar name in the past, giving fans a reference point on a particular horse. 

Risen Star winner NOTIONAL is starting to remind me a lot of 2003 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Peace Rules. Both California-based colts made successful runs through Fair Grounds while playing second fiddle in their powerhouse stables. You'll recall Peace Rules was Empire Maker's overshadowed stablemate, while NOTIONAL entered 2007 on the heels of fellow Doug O'Neill trainees GREAT HUNTER and LIQUIDITY. And, like Peace Rules, I kept waiting all season for distances to catch up with these horses who I considered superb milers, but questionable in the classics. Both possess excellent tactical speed. Don't forget: Peace Rules went on to notch the Blue Grass and Haskell, and NOTIONAL could be in for a similarly successful run - including some noise in Louisville. 

PEDIGREE-SCHMEDIGREE

Each week we look at a horse who may not be as "short" as you think, while also giving kudos to the well-bred lot.

Mountain Valley Stakes contender PROBATION READY has done nothing but sprint in his six career starts. And, we won't know much more about him after Saturday's six-furlong Oaklawn date. But if trainer Steve Asmussen opts to stretch him out later this spring, don't be surprised if this son of More Than Ready handles the assignment. More Than Ready was an underrated, versatile colt who carried his speed to a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, as well as runner-ups in the Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby. On the bottom side of the pedigree, PROBATION READY is a grandson of 1991 Arkansas Derby winner Olympio. Plus, given his running style, this is a solid-finishing colt worth a second look if, or when, they stretch him out.

WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS...

This section highlights the steamers and dead horses in the Las Vegas future book odds. 

Risen Star upsetter TEUFLESBERG took the week's biggest dip from 150-1 to 50-1 after scoring a two-turn major stakes win. The most interesting action took place at the top of the big board, however, as favorite NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ dropped significantly from 6-1 to 9-2, while Sam F. Davis champ ANY GIVEN SATURDAY plunged from 18-1 to 12-1 after his comeback score. Another comebacker, COBALT BLUE, was popular, falling from 200-1 to 150-1. Other noteable hot prices: OFFICER ROCKET from 150-1 to 100-1; SUMMER DOLDRUMS from 50-1 to 35-1; DRUMS OF THUNDER from 60-1 to 40-1; FOREFATHERS from 100-1 to 75-1; FORTY GRAMS from 125-1 to 100-1; and LEVEL RED from 150-1 to 100-1.

Dead on the board were the likes of: E Z WARRIOR now 50-1 from 35-1; HARD SPUN now 20-1 from 10-1; and PEGASUS WIND now 125-1 from 60-1.

Some very interesting debut numbers on the board came from the filly RAGS TO RICHES, who opened at 150-1 and was 75-1 by mid-week; VITRUVIUS, who opened at 150-1; and FLYING FIRST CLASS, who opened a startling 250-1.

Check out Johnny Avello's exclusive Wynn Las Vegas Future Book Odds, updated Feb. 21, here.

RUBBER-NECKING

Each week, we'll give you a race video worth a second look.

If you want to see how an impressive sprint winner is supposed to look, check out Oaklawn Race 6 on Monday, Feb. 19. FLYING FIRST CLASS not only won by daylight, but showed the ability to gun early, then relax, corner with precision, and finally stride out to the wire. We're not suggesting he's the next Derby winner, but rather saying this is the prototype for a fantastic maiden win that you want to compare others against. You can see the race at any number of outstanding race video subscription websites.

QUICK HITTERS

STREET SENSE and GREAT HUNTER fired warning shots this week that both are gearing up for next week's comeback attempts with more energy. STREET SENSE (likely for next Saturday's Hutcheson at Gulfstream) drilled 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 at Palm Meadows on Sunday. Meanwhile, GREAT HUNTER (likely for next Saturday's G2 Bob Lewis Memorial at Santa Anita) drilled 6 furlongs Monday in a sharp 1:12.80 at Hollywood Park ... NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ could meet a moderately sized field in next Saturday's Fountain of Youth. Potential rivals include BUFFALO MAN, ADORE THE GOLD, SCAT DADDY, DRUMS OF THUNDER, JOHANNESBURG STAR, HAL'S MY HOPE, DELIGHTFUL KISS and STORMELLO ... BOUTROUS is expected next in Santa Anita's Bob Lewis Memorial ... Trainer Allen Jerkens said BLUE BULLET could reappear in either the Aventura at Gulfstream or Aqueduct's Bay Shore, but will sprint at least one more time before considering a stretchout ... LIQUIDITY is likely to attempt the Louisiana Derby next, trainer Doug O'Neill reports ... RAVEL had his first workout since winning the Sham on Sunday, a solid half-mile in :48.80 at Hollywood Park .... Delta Jackpot winner BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD worked a solid half-mile as well in :48.40 Thursday at Palm Meadows ... EXHALE worked a strong 6 furlongs in 1:13 last Saturday at Hollywood ... Impressive debut winner CURLIN has now breezed twice at Fair Grounds for his new trainer, Steve Asmussen, including an easy 5 furlongs Tuesday in 1:02.20.

TUNING IN

We know you'd rather be at the track than reading yet another story about Britney Spears shaving her head. But for those of you who are stuck in the supermarket line reading the tabloid headlines (admit it, you do), each week we'll present a list of the must-watch (or record) 3-year-old races of the coming days, courtesy of TVG.




Friday, Feb. 23
Fair Grounds: maiden (Race 10, post time 6:10 p.m. eastern)

Saturday, Feb. 24
Aqueduct: maiden (Race 2, post time 12:58 p.m. eastern)
Turfway: maiden (Race 9, post time 4:55 p.m. eastern)

Sunday, Feb. 25
Turfway: allowance (Race 9, post time 4:55 p.m. eastern)

ARCHIVE

Missed a previous Countdown to the Crown? Click the date below to catch up.

- January 5, 2007
- January 12, 2007
- January 19, 2007
- January 26, 2007
- February 2, 2007
- February 9, 2007
- February 16, 2007