A horse-by-horse look at the potential Kentucky Derby 132 starting gate from the staff of The HorsePlayer Magazine.
A.P. WARRIOR
Trainer: John Shirreffs Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Credentials: Purchased for $1.3 million as a yearling, this son of 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy was supposed to be good from the get-go. He’s been a bit inconsistent, but after changing trainers to Shirreffs in mid-spring, A.P. Warrior put it together in the San Felipe. He closed his preparations with a distant third to Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby.
Best Case For: Shirreffs pulled the Derby trick a year ago with 50-1 stunner Giacomo, who, on paper at least, did not have the credentials of this colt. He likes to finish late in his races, has a router’s pedigree and a jockey who gets as much in the final eighth of a mile as anyone in America.
BARBARO
Trainer: Mike Matz Jockey: Edgar Prado
Credentials: Rattled off five straight wins to open his career, including graded stakes wins on turf and dirt. Trainer cautiously opted to bypass a race in March, awaiting the April 1 Florida Derby and won that in fine style. Just one race in 13 weeks come Derby Day, but has the look of something special.
Best Case For: Mid-Atlantic-based horses have flexed their regional muscle in recent years (Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex et al), and this colt could be (emphasize “could be”) as good as any. Former Olympic equestrian medalist Mike Matz knows about training for endurance – something Tim Ritchey mastered last year with Afleet Alex.
BLUEGRASS CAT
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Credentials: Proven commodity in New York last year, winning the Remsen in determined fashion. Disappointing loss in March 18 Tampa Bay Derby as trainer opted for the “easy” route. However, he was unable to erase that memory when finishing off-the-board as the favorite in the April 15 Blue Grass. Worse news yet, he loses Eclipse Champion Jockey John Velazquez to injury.
Best Case For: Pletcher is the sport’s Eclipse Champion Trainer three years running and the Triple Crown races are some of the few prizes eluding his grasp. This colt easily is trainer’s best-prepared Derby prospect ever in terms of seasoning, skill and pedigree.
BOB AND JOHN
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Credentials: Winner of the 1-1/8 miles Wood Memorial and Sham Stakes, he’s Bob Baffert’s most accomplished current sophomore as the trainer seeks a fourth Derby win in a decade. Californian headed east for the Wood, a path trainer took with Congaree before his Derby third in 2001.
Best Case For: Battle-tested colt has yet to run a poor race and has more than enough pedigree to play at the highest levels. Owner Bob McNair has the first pick in the NFL draft with his Houston Texans franchise. Reggie Bush and a Derby win? Not a bad spring.
BROTHER DEREK
Trainer: Dan Hendricks Jockey: Alex Solis
Credentials: Last year’s Hollywood Futurity winner knocked off BC Juvenile champion Stevie Wonderboy in January and heads into Louisville the race favorite with a four-race win streak after an easy, front-running win in the Santa Anita Derby.
Best Case For: Consistent winner in 6 of 8 starts has tactical speed to put him just about anywhere in the race he needs. Also has the feel-good story that wins Derbies - trainer Dan Hendricks was paralyzed just two summers ago in a motorcycle accident, but now is blessed with his “career-defining” horse.
CAUSE TO BELIEVE
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Russell Baze
Credentials: Strong-finishing colt in Northern California had six wins and three seconds in nine starts before a flat third in the Illinois Derby. Back-to-back wins in the El Camino Real and California derbies prompted owners to late supplement the colt to the Triple Crown nominations list.
Best Case For: Trainer/jockey combo likely has won more races together than any in history, and to just watch this colt run is pure poetry. As efficient of a stride, slick mover and strong finisher as any three-year-old in America at 1-1/16 miles, and may need that kind of middle-distance, quick pace set-up.
DEPUTY GLITTERS
Trainer: Tom Albertrani Jockey: Fernando Jara
Credentials: Winner of the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and runner-up in the Sam F. Davis, also on the Gulf Coast. He failed to threaten in the Wood Memorial when his trainer cited the sloppy track as the culprit for a sub-par performance.
Best Case For: Horses who like Tampa Bay Downs often translate that positive form when they run at Churchill Downs, so he should like the course in Louisville if he can muster the race of his life to contend.
FLASHY BULL
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: TBD
Credentials: Hard-knocking colt placed in the Remsen at age two and the Fountain of Youth this spring. Consistency underscored by eight straight finishes in the top four to open his career, but threw in the first bad race of his career in the Florida Derby and raised doubts.
Best Case For: Trainer McLaughlin surprised the world last year with 70-1 Derby runner-up Closing Argument, whose form certainly doesn’t overshadow this colt. Has a “Giacomo look” about him as well, both are sons of Holy Bull who dabbled with the best before heading to Louisville.
JAZIL
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Fernando Jara
Credentials: Wood Memorial runner-up blew past a tired favorite in Keyed Entry when chasing Bob and John last time out. Colt chased now-injured top Floridian Corinthian in a pair of contests this spring before heading north.
Best Case For: Best pedigree among trainer McLaughlin’s trio of Derby hopefuls (Like Now, Flashy Bull the others), so he’s in with a longshot’s chance. He’s done all his best running at Aqueduct, so keep an eye on the Derby Week workout tab for clues.
KEYED ENTRY
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela
Credentials: Out-sprinted fleet First Samurai early this spring in the Grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park, tipping that this up-and-comer had plenty of early gas. Keyed Entry subsequently tired a bit late in both the Gotham and Wood Memorial while settling for minor placings.
Best Case For: Trainer Todd Pletcher is the three-time reigning Eclipse Award winner as the nation’s best conditioner, and this colt has held on for a share while setting very fast fractions. If the Derby pace can somehow slow down early, his chances improve. He gets America’s top front-end jockey, PVal, for the Derby.
LAWYER RON
Trainer: Bob Holthus Jockey: John McKee
Credentials: Arkansas-based colt dominated the April 15 Arkansas Derby to improve to a perfect 7-for-7 on dirt tracks and has annihilated everything in his Midwestern path this spring. Trainer Bob Holthus has been around the barn more than 50 years and easily has his best Derby prospect.
Best Case For: Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex have dominated the past two Triple Crown renewals using a similar path through Oaklawn Park. He’s sired by a top miler (Langfuhr), another plus in recent Derby history. Note Langfuhr already produced Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando.
POINT DETERMINED
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Credentials: San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby runner-up continues to improve for trainer Baffert. Had a nightmarish trip tucked behind horses in his stakes debut in the San Felipe and just had no pace softening help vs. Brother Derek in the SA Derby.
Best Case For: Baffert has saddled three Derby winners (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem) and probably should have had a fourth with this colt’s daddy, Point Given – who won the Preakness and Belmont in 2001. Looks like a colt who, if the light turns on, could be a darned good one.
PRIVATE VOW
Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Credentials: Two-time major graded stakes winner last year in New York and Kentucky, he wintered in Arkansas as one of the top prospects for Derby 132. He tired badly in the March 18 Rebel in his first of only two starts on the year – but came back with an improving third in the Arkansas Derby on April 15..
Best Case For: Trainer has won more races in American than any other the past three years and isn’t one to over-reach with horses who don’t belong in the big dances. Speedster has run extremely well in two prior starts at Churchill, including a stakes romp last November.
SHARP HUMOR
Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Mark Guidry
Credentials: Determined winner of the Swale Stakes while sprinting in early spring, he punched his Louisville boarding pass with another gutty performance when second to Barbaro in the 1-1/8 miles Florida Derby. Trainer Romans has been Churchill’s best local conditioner the past five years and has his first Derby player.
Best Case For: Meet Funny Cide, Jr. – a New York-bred son of sire Distorted Humor who dominated his state-bred brethren at age two before taking on all comers at three. Like Funny Cide, a game, determined defeat in his final Derby prep sets the table (recall Funny Cide’s second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial).
SHOWING UP
Trainer: Barclay Tagg Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Credentials: Unbeaten, 3-for-3, winner of the Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes just two weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, earning perhaps the field’s final berth. Impressed in Florida this winter, but had to battle a foot abscess in order to make the Lexington after skipping the April 8 Wood Memorial.
Best Case For: Undefeated is undefeated, and it’s hard to find many faults. Add 2003 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Barclay Tagg to the mix and it only enhances his chances. Tagg’s normal conservatism has been left by the roadside with this talented colt.
SINISTER MINISTER
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Credentials: Wire-to-wire winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass April 15 by more than a dozen lengths, the third-largest blowout in the history of the most-productive of all Kentucky Derby prep races. Trainer Baffert has a three-headed monster with Bob and John and Point Determined flanking him.
Best Case For: Dazzling speedster is one of many Californians who’ve dominated their eastern brethren in this class of 2006 when shipping cross country. He’s got lightening early speed and should be batting for the lead from the opening bell.
STEPPENWOLFER
Trainer: Danny Peitz Jockey: Robby Albarado
Credentials: Consistent late runner chased Lawyer Ron home in the Southwest and Rebel, and once again the Oaklawn series finale in the Arkansas Derby. Three victories on his resume, though in search of his first major stakes score.
Best Case For: Son of Aptitude, a pure, 1-1/4 miles runner who was second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the 2000 Derby. He’s shown an ability to run well over any track, with all three of his career victories coming on different circuits.
SUNRIVER
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: TBD
Credentials: Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby after a wide trip, he made his presence known at Gulfstream this winter with an impressive allowance win at nine furlongs. Eclipse Champion Trainer Todd Pletcher calls the shots here as this colt seeks his first stakes win in the sport’s biggest showcase.
Best Case For: His full sister, Ashado, not only was a two-time Eclipse Champion, but she also won the Kentucky Oaks over this very Churchill Downs racetrack. He looks to be improving, but will have to overcome a five-week layoff on Derby Day.
STORM TREASURE
Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: TBD
Credentials: Runner in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at 65-to-1 odds in just his second career stakes attempt. Strongly built colt is a stablemate of Grade 2 winner Private Vow, who also runs for Austin businessman Mike McCarty.
Best Case For: Trainer Steve Asmussen has won more races in the US than any other conditioner the past three years and rarely runs horses where they don’t belong. If he’s in the gate, it’s worthy on notice.
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
Trainer: Michael Trombetta Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Credentials: Dominating winner of the Illinois Derby, beating Cause of Believe by daylight, making his case for Louisville. Memories of wide trip when fourth in the Gotham were erased when he overcame a tough post position No. 10 in style at Hawthorne.
Best Case For: Speed-figure supporters will love the fact he’s posted multiple 100-plus Beyers in four recent starts. Two-time Derby-winning jockey in the saddle won’t hurt on May 6.
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