The Match Race
Jamie Michelson,
2005 DRF/NTRA NHC Winner
vs.
Mike Ray,
2005 Horseplayer World Series Winner
Interview by Jerry Shottenkirk
(Originally appeared in March/April 2005 hardcopy edition of The HorsePlayer Magazine)
JAMIE MICHELSON FILE
The resident of West Bloomfield, Mich., took home the first prize of $200,000 in the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship Jan. 21-22 at Bally’s-Las Vegas. He claimed the crown as “Handicapper of the Year” by out-earning 213 players. Michelson, 39, is in the advertising business. Though he doesn’t get to the track everyday, Michelson usually keeps an eye on charts and race videos. He qualified for the NHC through an online tournament on Youbet.com.
MIKE RAY FILE
The Las Vegas resident topped 767 contestants to earn the first prize of $384,000 in the inaugural Coast Casinos Horseplayer World Series tournament Jan. 27-29 at the Orleans Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. Ray, 58, is a retired certified public accountant who has lived in Vegas for three years. Prior to that, he lived in Athens, NY, near Albany. Ray plays simulcasts five days a week in Las Vegas and keys on southern California tracks. He qualified for his tournament in Vegas.
HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE: How does it feel to have the title of “handicapping champion”?
MICHELSON: It feels good. I think as someone who has been going to the races for most of my life - and introducing a lot of people to the sport - it’s nice to get that recognition.
RAY: It’s very prestigious and it’s very gratifying. It’s the satisfaction that I’m sure both Jamie and I got from winning the contest and beating a very select group of our peers. As MasterCard would say, “It’s priceless”. I’m still up in the air and haven’t come down. It’s such a terrific feeling that’s hard to describe.
HP: Did you surround yourself with people at the tournament?
RAY: I’m in with a group of close friends. We compare notes on trips and biases at different tracks. We handicap a lot together and make our selections known to each other. This whole group was with me at this tournament, which made this win extra nice because we’re kind of scattered across the country. I share and get data from my close friends who are heavily into horse racing. At my table there were eight of us. Toward the end, when they knew they didn’t have a chance (to win the World Series), everybody at the table was rooting for my horses. It’s phenomenal the camaraderie you develop in this sport and it was a terrific feeling to win with them there.
MICHELSON: My group would be smaller, primarily those participating with me, mainly my father (James Sr.). My father qualified for the national championship two years ago and I went out there with him and got to experience that. All of us handicapped in our own ways and went through our races together and discussed our strategies about our picks and how to approach each day. It would not have been as fun of an experience without them.
HP: What type of handicapping products do you use in tournament play?
MICHELSON: I have come to rely on Thoro-Graph over the last few years. I use that as a primary product. My primary interest is turf racing, so I supplement that information on a daily basis.
RAY: I also use general info data on past performances I download off the internet. No specific name products. The group of fellas I’m in with and I have our own track bias information and we do some of our own speed and pace figures. We chart horses daily, noting those biases and trips. I’m basically a bias player. If a horse was against a bias in a previous race, I’m looking for a horse to improve the next race out.
HP: Do either of you consider handicapping a science?
RAY: I don’t know if I would call it a science. I was a practicing C.P.A. (certified public accountant) for many years, and handicapping lends itself to a very analytical type of process. It’s very logical in many aspects. I know a lot of accountants that are interested in horse racing. It just kind of lends itself to that. I don’t know if I’d call that a science; I suppose it could be more science than art. There’s certainly an element of luck that goes into it. You’re betting on living, breathing animals, and in any given race you don’t know if that horse feels good that day and you’re hoping he’ll run back to form as you’ve handicapped it. You don’t know if he’s going to have trouble getting blocked in. You’re doing the best you can based on previous data. But sometimes that doesn’t always appear to be relevant to the current day after the race was over.
MICHELSON: I would definitely say on the spectrum it’s a little more art than science. But you do tend to go into a race with a hypothesis of how the race might be run. And then the race is run, and you’re theory is proven correct or incorrect. That little part of it is a science. But most of it is very unscientific.
HP: Are you planning on playing in more tournaments?
RAY: Yes, absolutely. I’ve played in the Coast tournaments every quarter. They’ve had four a year for the past three or four years. I’ve played at Bally’s trying to qualify for the one Jamie won. I try to play in any horse racing tournament around Las Vegas. I don’t travel to go to other tournaments. When they’re here in town – and there’s a lot here – then I do get in them. They’re just a lot of fun, and Coast Casinos does a terrific of hosting these tournaments.
MICHELSON: I do intend to participate through 2005 in tournaments. I get to return to this one (NHC) next year since I won it. I will participate with my father in many of them. Unlike Mike, I don’t have any in my area, so I have to travel except when it’s online. I travel to places like Chicago, Toronto, Chicago, Sioux Falls and Keeneland…and I’ll participate on Youbet.com, where I qualified last year.
HP: Is there any kind of preparation you go through for a tournament?
RAY: No, there’s really not, because I’m playing on a day-to-day basis. You’re handicapping throughout the year, and that helps. When the tournament comes, that’s just another race card. As you’re looking throughout the year, you’re looking for value. And, in these contests, you have to select horses of minimum odds of 5-to-1 or 6-to-1. You don’t have to reach for all bombs. They don’t have to be 25-to-1 shots. On the other hand, you cannot play 2-to-1 horses in a contest. You’ll score points, but you won’t score nearly enough points. From that standpoint, the handicapping, once you get the past performance sheets, becomes more selective on the horses you’re using in the contest. When I play, I try to select contest horses that I would bet with my own money, or at least use with my own money. They may not be horses I would key in a race, but they would be horses I would use with a key horse that I would feel has a good chance of winning.
MICHELSON: I do not play the horses everyday; they’re more of a hobby to me. Before a tournament, though, I do keep records of horses to watch based on trips or other things I want to keep track of. I run marathons. In training for those, you try to taper and peak at certain points, so I guess my approach is that since I can’t do it everyday I try to get ready at the right times for those tournaments by reviewing videos and charts. I just try to be as knowledgeable as I can be going into the tournament.
HP: Is there a horse that sticks out in your mind when it comes to the tournament success you had in January? Any particular horse put you over the top?
RAY: Yes there is. On Saturday (day two of the three-day HorsePlayer World Series), when I was quite far behind at the end of the first day (approximately 130th out of 768 participants), I hit a couple of horses early. In the first race Santa Anita, I hit a real good price. But the fourth race at Santa Anita, it was a race full of speed and I bet a closer at 45-to-1 (Red Warrior: $97 to win, $34.80 to place). When he circled the pack in the stretch and came about six wide, my whole table was going berserk. For me, that was the most exciting time of the tournament. That put me up around 3,000 points. I hit a couple more place tickets. But (Red Warrior) was the one that put me over the top.
MICHELSON: I, too, have to go with a horse kind of late in the contest. One of my last plays on Saturday (the final day of the two-day NHC) was in the 10th at Gulfstream, a horse named Joe Pag. He took the lead and really opened up on the field at the top of the stretch, and like Mike, we had a lot of people rooting. There were horses getting to him at the end, and other players in the contest rooted for those. But he held on probably by neck. A (win-place) combination paid $52.20. He put me in the lead. I’ll remember that horse for a long time.
HP: What are your most important handicapping angles?
RAY: I’m a track bias player. I’m keeping track of the biases on a daily basis, whether the track is inside or outside, speed favoring, favoring closer, etc. And, if a horse is against that bias or has had a horrendous trip, I’m noting that. Like Jamie, I’m looking for them to run back. Those are horses I’m playing not only in the contests, but daily.
MICHELSON: My favorite thing, and it doesn’t apply to all tracks, is turf racing. I really enjoy it. I try to find those horses that will take on very different form in going from dirt to turf. I look for value and look for races where the favorites are vulnerable, if not just highly over-bet.
HP: Which tracks were played at the tournaments, and which ones do you normally play?
RAY: They took the major tracks – Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, Laurel, Oaklawn - and on Friday and Saturday they also took Turf Paradise. I concentrated mostly on Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. I play southern California much more than any other circuit.
MICHELSON: We had seven tracks each day: Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Turf Paradise. My optional races were heavy toward Gulfstream. As far as going to the races, I love Saratoga in the summer time. It’s a place I’ve gone for a long time, well before I was even of betting age. I’ve gone with my family.
HP: What is your advice for players considering entering a tournament?
RAY: My advice to anybody getting into these tournaments is to play it the way Jamie and I did, and that is to have somebody close to you, if not family, close friends, so you can share the experiences, share horses, compare handicapping notes. It just enhances the fun and the enjoyment so much to have people with you that keep you up throughout the whole tournament. That would be my advice. Just have a good time.
MICHELSON: I’d say play all 4-to-5 shots so you can give people Mike and me a better chance. I won’t give away all my secrets, but one thing I’ve learned now is that a lot of it is preparation. What I do is create a chart or spread sheet on races in the contest in time order in which they fall. And then I use a grid to put in a second horse. That gives me something to follow as the day goes on. Also, it’s important not to miss a race you really like. There are sometimes seven races going on over five minutes.
HP: You guys both just won a nice chunk of change? Has it changed you, and what will you do with the winner’s check?
MIKE RAY: It has not changed me at all. It won’t change my day-to-day living a bit. The cash is great; it adds to my retirement security. I’m retired and basically play the horses five days a week and that will continue. I don’t plan to increase my bets or anything like that. I’m just going to live life as I have and enjoy retirement out here in Las Vegas.
JAMIE MICHELSON: It will not change my life. As for the money, I will put it into college savings for my daughter.
(Copyright, The HorsePlayer Magazine, March/April 2005)
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