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By JEREMY PLONK of The HorsePlayer Magazine
KENTUCKY DERBY MAY 5
PREAKNESS MAY 19
BELMONT JUNE 9
THREE THINGS YOU WON'T READ ANYWHERE ELSE
Opinions are like shoveling snow. It's not the amount that matters, it's how much weight they carry. (Can you tell what I've been doing all week?)
1 - If I read one more time that "So-and-so is too slow to win the Derby," I may wad up my Form and gag myself with it. What the heck does speed have to do with 1-1/4 miles, 126 pounds, 19 other rivals and 150,000 screaming suits-and-drunks? You had better like the track, be tough and battle-tested, composed of well-behaved mannerisms and be able to overcome adversity - either through guts or the ability to make your own trip. They don't measure that in figs, folks. There's a good reason that the final Derby time ranges between 2:00 and 2:05 (about 25 lengths) even with world-class athletes - because speed doesn't matter in this instance. It's like being the fastest wide receiver in the NFL. It doesn't mean a thing if you can't catch the ball with a linebacker ready to put an indent in your chest.
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2 - Had Appealing Zophie been sent after the lead in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last year, there would be a different name on the 2006 Eclipse Award for 2-Year-Old Fillies. Not sure who, but DREAMING OF ANNA has always felt like a need-the-lead type to me, and her minor bobble to start last week's Old Hat Stakes should have been a blip, not a blam. Send her the Oaks route and stop talking Derby.
3 - Dear LAWRENCE THE ROMAN, thanks for sucking me in. If I ever fall victim to the New York hype machine on an unproven horse again, please kick me full-blast in the head. For years, I've prided myself in being smarter. Why did you have to do me like that? Love, JP.
HIGH FIVES
Top 5 performances seen so far this season by race type:
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Maiden Race |
Allowance |
Stakes |
|
1. Texas Voyager - SA |
1. Spin Master - GP |
1. Ravel - Sham - SA |
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2. Street Magician - GP (new) |
2. Forty Grams- FG |
2. Notional - Risen Star - FG (new) |
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3. Exhale - SA |
3. Delightful Kiss - GP (new) |
2. Adore the Gold - Swale - GP |
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4. Spanky Come Home - SA |
4. The Hitman - OP |
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz - Holy Bull - GP |
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5. Curlin - GP |
5. Bold Start - GP |
5. Buffalo Man - Spectacular Bid - GP |
THIS WEEK'S FEARLESS FORECAST
Each week this section includes a look at what's coming this weekend (maidens, allowances, stakes), including picks of the major stakes.
The two big stakes of the upcoming holiday weekend are Saturday's Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and Monday's Southwest from Oaklawn. Meanwhile, the Borderland Derby and Turf Paradise Derby are on the docket for gaming reasons only, as neither likely will have an impact on the Triple Crown trail. But we'll be firing at those as well, because...well...we like to play. First, let's get into a fairly light weekend of undercard races worth noting.
Santa Anita has back-to-back Saturday races in the 2nd and 3rd to keep an eye on. Race 2 is a Cal-bred, entry-level sprint allowance, where solid debut winner COMOROS bears watching for John Sadler. The son of Comic Strip should get a distance when asked and has trained smartly since his debut score. Race 3 is an open maiden special weight at 7 panels. FINE FLYER wheels back on 2 weeks' rest for Richard Mandella after one of the strongest finishes and gallop outs you'll see in a sprint debut. Looks like they're pressing the gas pedal because they feel they may have something good under the hood here and time is running out if you're still a maiden. If he runs big Saturday, beware. While not a distance player, Bobby Frankel's IN THE WOODS looks like a smoking sprint prospect. By Forest Wildcat out of a Two Punch mare, he's working like a good thing. Promising Include colt I'M ALL OUT also returns for Mike Mitchell in this tough spot.
Just as FINE FLYER was marked earlier in this series as a major "bet back," so is ADVANCED SIGNS in Saturday's 7th at Gulfstream. He's worked exceptionally well since a nice debut behind promising horses CAME TO PASS and VICARIAN in which he finished with a lot of interest and smooth, sweet stride. I'm looking for this to be Nick Zito's hot horse by late spring. This GP maiden is a dandy with VIRTUVIUS making his career debut for Jimmy Jerkens. This one is half-brother to Corinthian and San Rafael winner Desert Hero. And, COUNSELLED debuts for Bill Mott off of a nice worktab. By A.P. Indy, he's out of champion 2YO filly Countess Diana. If that's not enough, FEARLESS VISION comes off a fantastic closing runner-up debut and adds blinkers. From a sensational win-early family on the dam side, this Vision and Verse colt also could be sitting on go. Whoever wins this race earns the purse and your respect.
Saturday's 3rd at Aqueduct features allowance/optional claiming sprinters. Red Bullet baby RED HOT DAWN makes his 3YO debut for Tony Dutrow. He was last seen thrashing eventual Gulfstream impressive winner CHIEF TALKEETNA in thier Dec. 2 showdown.
Stakes Previews
SAM F. DAVIS (Tam): Seven have answered the bell, but ANY GIVEN SATURDAY should TKO this group in the first round. Runner-up in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, Todd Pletcher's million-dollar colt has a bullet workout earlier this month for the return try. The pace scenario falls right into his lap as well, where he should no worse than third against a pair of sprinters who likely will struggle with the distance. The only other stakes winner in the field notched his coup against Michigan-breds. BRISCO AND LOGAN exits a 10-length Calder maiden score Dec. 23, but has had 2 significant gaps in his worktab since. Bill Mott's MONSTER DRIVE beat NY-breds in December, but the Commendable colt is from a female family heavily loaded with sprinters. Marylou Whitney's FuPeg colt SINGAPORE SWING exits a razor-sharp local allowance prep, but has to make up 10 lengths on 'BRISCO from their last match-up.
BORDERLAND DERBY (Sun): Despite a good spot on the calendar, a middle distance at 1-1/16 miles and 2-turn configuration, the ungraded status of the $100,000 Borderland Derby definitely impacts the quality of the field. Doug O'Neill has had success going the Sunland route in year's past with horses like Thor's Echo. He returns with ANOTHER BROTHER, 1-for-3 in his career with only a maiden claiming score at Santa Anita. In fact, 5 of the 9 are eligble for a N2L allowance. Steve Asmussen's WESTERN PRIZE is the most accomplished of the field, having won or placed in 5 stakes including the Ellis Park Juvenile. Asmussen's A-runner, though, may be TAKEDOWN, a son of Point Given out of a mare I personally enjoyed watching run live, Little Sister. She was a top midwestern distaff sprinter, so it's a bit of a question how far TAKEDOWN will go. But this horse was beaten less than 5 lengths by CHELOKEE going a 1-turn mile at Churchill, so the class edge could carry him far in this tilt. GAME OF SKILL should be the stoutest local after an easily-fast-enough-to-win-this mile maiden score Jan. 16.
TURF PARADISE DERBY (TuP): Trainer Craig Dollase is pretty shrewd about finding mid-level spots for his horses to show their best. GREGORIAN BAY fits that mold in his stakes debut, traveling to Phoenix after a runner-up effort behind eventual Cal Derby champ BWANA BULL. Of the locals, how will TIE ROD follow up his 10-length romp in the Rattlesnake, his first try around 2 turns? The win came pretty much out of nowhere for the son of Old Topper.
New...posted Saturday: SOUTHWEST (OP): Monday's $250,000 Southwest should be a graded stakes - don't get me started on that topic - but, alas, the 1-mile event still drew a strong group of 9 of Grade 2 or 3 caliber. HARD SPUN will be odds-on to notch his fifth-straight win and remain unbeaten, but will have to do so from the No. 9 post. Luckily of him, mile races at Oaklawn begin and end at the sixteenth pole, which means he'll have a decent run to the first turn in which to gain position, and a short stretch run to help the cause if a wide trip were to take some steam out of his sails. The caution with him is that the final quarter of the Lecomte was a :26-4/5 crawl after a mediocre pace (1:11 for six panels), yet he still opened up lengths in the lane. Was the Lecomte field just that bad? Well, none of those rivals came back to hit the board in the Risen Star last week, which was swept 1-2-3 by shippers. HARD SPUN also will be giving 3-5 pounds to his rivals, not a huge deal going a mile, but doesn't aid his cause. FORTY GRAMS could be the most likely upsetter off back-to-back Fair Grounds wins around 2 turns. He actually gets 5 pounds off from his last start, in which he ran the final quarter in :25-4/5, almost 5 lengths faster than HARD SPUN's Lecomte. The key to the pace - and perhaps the outcome of the race - will be the impact the blinkers-off move has on fleet TEUFLESBERG. Ice-cold trainer Jamie Sanders has her stable star working bullets, but he's 0-for-3 around 2 turns and typically a major, up-front pace presence. If he settles at Oaklawn, the task for HARD SPUN gets exponentially easier, as STARBASE appears to be the only other early speed. XCHANGER picks a great spot for his 3YO debut and likely will need a race. He's already got plenty of graded stakes earnings, so this ungraded, flat mile is a perfect starting out point. Look for him to run much better next time out. GOING BALLISTIC runs nothing like his daddy, G1 sprinter Lite the Fuse, and has been working fantastically for his 3YO return. The deep closer will be up against it with the short stretch run that ends at the sixteenth pole. OFFICER ROCKET has to prove to me that he has any real late kick, and he's been way overbet in most of his races to this point. I'll take a pass, though tons of respect for Holthus-Borel team. OUR SACRED HONOR invades for Todd Pletcher, but has yet to race around 2 turns. His versatile style should have him in the mix turning for home, but I'm not wild about this son of Honour and Glory.
Sam F. Davis Picks:
1- #3 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
2- #7 SINGAPORE SWING
3- #2 BRISCO N LOGAN
Borderland Derby Picks:
1- #4 GAME OF SKILL
2- #5 TAKEDOWN
3- #2 ANOTHER BROTHER
Turf Paradise Derby Picks:
1- #1 GREGORIAN BAY
2- #4 TIE ROD
3- #9 PREFERRED YIELD
Southwest Picks:
1- #6 FORTY GRAMS
2- #9 HARD SPUN
3 - #3 GOING BALLISTIC
How'd we do last week? 4 races, 2 won by our top pick and 2 by our second-listed choice.
How are we doing on the season? 16 races, 6 on-top winners (38%) and 7 second-choice winners (81% from top 2).
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EVERYONE'S A CRITIC
Each week this section includes analysis of last week's major races, allowances and maidens.
Did you not read right here last week that the Risen Star would be the perfect dress rehearsal for the Kentucky Derby? Huge field, tight turns, long stretch, regional clash. They might as well have painted "Welcome to Frickin' Louisville" on the quarter-pole last Saturday at Fair Grounds, as chaos ensued when the tightly bunched field turned for home. Favorite CIRCULAR QUAY (I've been rough on ya, baby, but didn't wish that trip on anyone!) had to avoid the fallen rider of SLEW'S TIZZY in an athletic maneuver, yet somehow managed to regain interest and run on decently to be fifth. The jury's still out on 'QUAY, but even a detractor like me has to remain open-minded now. You get my applause this week.
NOTIONAL ran an outstanding race to win the Risen Star, benefitting from a cleaner trip than most, but isn't that what wins the Kentucky Derby? And, this was a Derby-like race in every sense of the statement. I like him quite a bit more than stablemate LIQUIDITY and he's gaining on fellow Doug O'Neill trainee GREAT HUNTER. The pace for this race was much faster than two other graded stakes on the card, the Silverbulletday for 3YO fillies and potential Horse of the Year threat Master Command's win in the Mineshaft Handicap. That said, it begged for finishers, and NOTIONAL pounced under a ground-saving ride on the second turn after going a bit wide on the first bend. Runner-up IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY made a lot of sense from a handicapping standpoint, and did his part to move late for the place. ZANJERO ran perhaps the best race of all in his first start of 2007. I know he's one of "my boys," and that can lead to over-glorification, but he swallowed this field on the far turn, opened up in the lane and just ran out of steam the last eighth of a mile when third. His work pattern had shown some gaps, so his fitness obviously was in question. His talent, afterwards, should not be. You may have read trainer Steve Asmussen's quotes that the horse was plenty fit, but that's trainer speak. Do you want to tell fickle owners you ran a horse 75-percent fit in a $300,000 race? ZANJERO made a winning run, and it continues to befuddle me how strong closers seem to be completely up against it when it comes to receiving a big-time speed figure. With a few more points in his Beyer column, this colt is Top 5 in every pollmaker's listing. Instead, he's 60-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. And, fellow 'cappers, bank on this: if Tom Amoss finds a 3YO stakes without a blistering pace somewhere in the country, IZZIE'S HALO is going to cash a big one, and a trip to Turfway for the Lane's End on Polytrack wouldn't be a bad idea whatsoever.
That screaching noise making your ears bleed is the sound of the LAWRENCE THE ROMAN bandwagon coming to the kind of halt that would make even the Crash Test Dummies wince. Smashed to 1-to-2 favoritism in the Whirlaway this past Saturday at Aqueduct, the unbeaten NY-bred for Rick Dutrow had no excuse and no life when finishing a terrible fifth of six runners. His effort was so bad that owner Lawrence Roman himself decided to nix a huge private sale deal to IEAH Stable because he felt bad for selling lemons at bar-of-gold prices. Don't recommend you go anywhere looking for a "re-do" on your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers, however. As for what was good in the Whirlaway, SUMMER DOLDRUMS ran a pretty solid pace and still thumped this group by 5-1/4 lengths wire-to-wire (around 2 turns). Trainer Rick Violette is capable, and this is a son of redhot young stud Street Cry. Other than his no-show in the Remsen, he's been rock-solid. A little proof against the big boys later in the spring will be necessary to see, as well as quite interesting. This guy isn't all that far off the Top 20 radar.
Outside of NOTIONAL in the Risen Star, last week's most professional effort came from WEBN Stakes winner JOE GOT EVEN, who looks like the dominant winter horse at Turfway this season and a major force for next month's G2 Lane's End. He ran the utmost professional race, relaxed behind moderate fractions, saved ground, shot through the hole presented to him in the 2-path at the quarter-pole and then opened up with excellent leg action through the lane. This Stephen Got Even colt was 5th of 9 in last fall's G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill and a Keeneland fall meet allowance winner, so don't thumb your nose at his class. The question comes for the classics in that he's 0-for-2 on natural dirt tracks and a Polytrack beast.
Scratches by HURRY UP AUSTIN (bad gate acting) and MAJOR PLEASURE (trainer decision because of slick track) left Sunday's San Vicente at Santa Anita with a light group of 5. NOBLE COURT sat an absolute perfect-trip third behind the two longest shots in the race, who slugged a half-mile in :45.39 going seven panels. The heavy favorite was handily beaten by E Z WARRIOR in the San Miguel, and his stride shortened the entire length of the stretch here. No way do I endorse around 2 bends. Baffert's back-up plan to E Z, LAW BREAKER, was 2 lengths past the winner before they hit the clubhouse turn on the gallop out. He's a 2-turner who broke sharply in this route-to-sprint turn-back in the San Vicente, then relaxed and finished nicely while earning more respect from me in defeat.
BUFFALO MAN won Monday's OBS Championship at Ocala when stopping the clock just one-fifth of a second off the 1-1/16 miles track record. Now, they don't run a ton of races at the non-parimutuel facility, so that's not as telling as the fact that the 3-year-old fillies in their OBS Championship heat ran nearly two full seconds slower. This race was Plan B after drawing post 14 in the Risen Star, and a shrewd one at that by Cam Gambolati. This horse is better than most think, and his 2-turn win at Meadowlands last year was one of the most visually stirring by any member of this 3-year-old crop. He beat a decent group in the OBS, including Kiaran McLaughlin's NO REPLY and multiple Calder stakes winner GREEN VEGAS.
In what looked like easily the best allowance race of 2007 before the race, Sunday's 7th at Gulfstream once again proved the early season power of the Calder routers. The 1-mile race saw Shug McGaughey's Nashua runner-up SIGHTSEEING, Mike Matz's promising CHELOKEE and Tom Albertrani's upstart debut winner CAME TO PASS all involved a four-way photo - for place. That's because Pete Anderson's DELIGHTFUL KISS swooped 5-wide in a last-to-first effort to pull a $49.60 upset by 1-1/2 lengths. CAME TO PASS was most disappointing, breaking sharply and not relaxing while fighting for the lead (:22.42 second quarter was much quicker than the opening quarter). This race fell apart late with a :26.58 final quarter for a 1-turn heat. SIGHTSEEING made a nice rail close to win the place photo and should be set up for a better effort next time. The same can be said for CHELOKEE, who looks like a horse begging for 2 turns the way he ran while 4-wide in this one. He looked dead in the water at the quarter-pole, but kept chugging (aided some visually by the slow come-home time, to be sure). The way the race completed, I won't rank it the best allowance of '07 despite its good look on paper, but it's still pretty high up there.
We did get one of the year's best maiden performances on Saturday at Gulfstream when Mike Trombetta's second-timer STREET MAGICIAN ran off with the Race 6 sprint in a strong 1:10.18. Pressed from the opening bell to the quarter-pole, he opened up on the field throughout the stretch to win by 8 and galloped out with vigor. The Street Cry colt is out of a Meadowlake mare, so we'll have to see how far he can go, but the future looks very bright. The other 2 maiden heats on the program were won by last-to-first closers, making STREET MAGICIAN's wire job even more impressive. Dale Romans' SOLEMN PROMISE won Race 2 in 1:11.07, almost 5 lengths slower that the aforementioned maiden heat. He won by daylight, but was hard-ridden throughout after losing touch with the field down the backstretch. Nick Zito notched the other maiden event with late-running OPTIMISTIC STEVE, a lower-end $75K purchase by Stephen Got Even. The second-timer was not as fancied by the connections, as Rafael Bejarano opted to ride entrymate and fourth-place finisher RED MISSILE in a double-call on the program. Keep an eye on VICARIAN, who was looming with a near-certain winning move at the quarter-pole before bolting.
Just this Wednesday at Santa Anita, COBALT BLUE returned from aches and pains to scorch 6 panels in 1:09.12 and give trainer Doug O'Neill his 934th potential Triple Crown contender (most minor of exagerations). The Golden Missile colt, a Merv Griffin production, likely will be given every chance to be a Derby horse as it's the owner's longtime dream. Watch for him in perhaps the WinStar Derby next, and then he'll get one shot to make the graded earnings threshold in early April.
Sunday's 3rd at Santa Anita looked like a Baffert 1-2 love fest on paper, but both of his charges wilted in the lane, as the Garrett Gomez-ridden AUGMENT moved swiftly on the turn, loomed large at the top of the lane and then out-slugged pace-dueling FORTUNATE VICTORY for the cash. Take major heed of the runner-up, who was 4-wide on the first turn and up close to the pace after being a deep, deep closer in his first 4 starts. The fact that Corey Nakatani made a rare appearance on a Jack Van Berg trainee should have been the tip-off. This Victory Gallop colt was cooked in a duel, but fought hard all the way and then galloped out much better than the winner, who had passed him in the final yards. Bet FORTUNATE VICTORY back next time with the utmost confidence. AUGMENT looks like a nice son of Aptitude for Paddy Gallagher, but this was not a stakes-inspiring effort.
Keep an eye on Saturday's Race 8 maiden route winner at Oaklawn, GARTH R. The Victory Gallop colt closed from far back to win despite a putrid opening 6 panels in 1:14.34 for Ronny Werner. It may have taken 3 tries to break his maiden, but this pure router still has yet to see an opening half-mile under :48-1/5. Watch for him to have an exotics say at a big price in a fast-paced Rebel.
Last Friday's Oaklawn action provided a strong 6-furlong allowance in Race 2. STORM FORCE continued D. Wayne Lukas' domination of the local 3YO scene with a commanding, 4-length win in 1:10.93. The time was only about 4 lengths slower than older stakes stars went later in the day in the King Cotton Stakes. The son of Storm Cat has now won 2 straight at the meet, but must relax a bit to be a threat around 2 turns. He raced a bit erratic in the lane while much the best - but there's upside.
Also last Friday, Fair Grounds' card provided split maiden special weight heats at 6 panels, the first won by Mizzen Mast colt MASTER MIZZEN for David Carroll. He dominated a well-bred lot by 3 lengths in 1:10.53. The faster division (1:10.33) came in Race 8 when Paul McGee's DEMARCATION out-gunned Carroll's TENKILLER LAKE in a hard-fought affair. The sons of Gulch and Red Bullet both look like they have good futures, drawing 6 lengths clear of the rest while coming home faster the final quarter-mile than the first division.
Monday's Race 8 at Fair Grounds offered a mile maiden heat that was won in a lackluster 1:38.53 by STONEHOUSE for Spanky Broussard. Well-bred rookie EL INDY was very one-paced in an unispiring debut for Mike Stidham. Another maiden heat lacking steam was Saturday's 6th at Santa Anita, where Rafael Becerra's ABALANCHE won his debut about 3 lengths quicker than $10,000 claimers on the same card going 5-1/2 panels. DIVINE PARK won a 3-way maiden sprint duel Saturday in Aqueduct's fourth in a mediocre time for Kiaran McLaughlin.
PUT 'EM IN THE GATE
Can't wait for May 5? This section ranks my Top 20 and puts horses in the gate if the race was this weekend. Remember, this isn't about how they'll be on Derby Day, but rather how they rate today with Derby ability at 1-1/4 miles a main factor. This will be a fluid list over the course of the spring.
Think I'm off my rocker? Send your Top 20 list to me, plonk@horseplayerdaily.com, and I'll pick one fan's list each week to appear in Countdown to the Crown right next to mine. Please put "TOP 20" in the subject line and include your state of residence!
This week's changes include a jump from 4th to 3rd by ZANJERO following a strong comeback race in the Risen Star; a leap to No. 9 by NOTIONAL, the Risen Star champ who is exceeding my original thoughts; and the debut of JOE GOT EVEN at No. 20, who replaced LAWRENCE THE ROMAN, who plummets from No. 17 to unranked.
Jeremy's Rankings:
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1 |
Ravel |
6 |
Any Given Saturday |
11 |
Buffalo Man |
16 |
Liquidity |
|
2 |
Nobiz Like Shobiz |
7 |
Hard Spun |
12 |
Adore the Gold |
17 |
Chelokee |
|
3 |
Zanjero |
8 |
Grapelli |
13 |
Circular Quay |
18 |
Exhale |
|
4 |
Street Sense |
9 |
Notional |
14 |
Birdbirdistheword |
19 |
Scat Daddy |
|
5 |
Great Hunter |
10 |
Forty Grams |
15 |
Stormello |
20 |
Joe Got Even (new) |
Reader Rankings (By Bob W. in Missouri):
|
1 |
Nobiz Like Shobiz |
6 |
Great Hunter |
11 |
Stormello |
16 |
Grapelli |
|
2 |
Ravel |
7 |
Notional |
12 |
Curlin |
17 |
Summer Doldrums |
|
3 |
Street Sense |
8 |
C P West |
13 |
Scat Daddy |
18 |
Chelokee |
|
4 |
Circular Quay |
9 |
Hard Spun |
14 |
Exhale |
19 |
Came To Pass |
|
5 |
Any Given Saturday |
10 |
Liquidity |
15 |
Zanjero |
20 |
Belgravia |
SEND IN THE CLONES
Each week I provide a horse of the week that looks similar in form/style/performance to a familiar name in the past, giving fans a reference point on a particular horse.
Holy Bull runner-up DRUMS OF THUNDER beats to a similar tune to that of 1995 Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Mecke. Both were hard-raced at 2 - Mecke with 10 starts, 'DRUMS with 8. Both won turf allowances at age 2 in their grass debuts, giving the connections an open datebook for the future - but were quickly returned to the more lucrative 3YO dirt scene. Each were major stakes winners at Calder and ran strong placings against big-time Remsen winners at Gulfstream the following season. Mecke was third to Thunder Gulch (the eventual Kentucky Derby champ) and Suave Prospect in the '95 Florida Derby. DRUMS OF THUNDER opened his sophomore run with a strong second to NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ.
Mecke didn't have as much tactical speed as DRUMS OF THUNDER, but his Arlington Million-winning resume wouldn't be a bad fate for this next-generation clone.
PEDIGREE-SCHMEDIGREE
Each week we look at a horse who may not be as "short" as you think, while also giving kudos to the well-bred lot.
BUFFALO MAN has a bottom-side gene pool that sure would make you think sprint, but he doesn't run like it. His dam, Perfect Six, was a 4-time stakes winner on the ultra-tough SoCal distaff sprint scene. She's half-sister to tough mid-Atlantic sprint stakes winner Rusty Spur, who was runner-up in the G2 General George, as well as Bob Baffert's 4-time graded stakes winner Commitisize. The latter was able to stretch his speed to 9 furlongs on grass in the Cinema BC.
His sire, El Prado, is best known for producing multiple G1 winner Medaglia d'Oro, who was runner-up in the 12-panel Belmont Stakes, 10-furlong turf champion Kitten's Joy and G1 Pacific Classic/Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Borrego, another who relished 10 furlongs.
WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS...
This section highlights the steamers and dead horses in the Las Vegas future book odds.
It was easily the busiest week of 2007 in terms of line movement. FOREFATHERS took a huge drop from 225-1 to 100-1. SUMMER DOLDRUMS from 175-1 to 50-1. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY fell from 225-1 to 150-1. CURLIN plummeted from 125-1 to 60-1. BOUTROUS from 100-1 to 50-1. CHELOKEE dropped from 250-1, but remains a strong price at 200-1. AIR COMMANDER from 75-1 to 40-1, the same drop shared by ZANJERO. FORTY GRAMS from 150-1 to 125-1. LIQUIDITY from 75-1 to 50-1. BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD from 75-1 to 60-1. Big-time board mover LES GRAND TROIS continues his descent from 50-1 to 35-1 this week despite not racing since last July.
The favorites' roles also became much more defined. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ dropped a point this week to 6-1, while HARD SPUN took a major move (considering the already-low price) from 18-1 to 10-1. RAVEL dropped from 40-1 to 12-1. NOTIONAL free falls from 35-1 to 15-1 in a big move.
As for those dead on the board, 4 were Todd Pletcher trainees: CIRCULAR QUAY rose from 15-1 to 18-1; COWTOWN CAT from 100-1 to 150-1; SOARING BY from 60-1 to 75-1; and SCAT DADDY from 20-1 to 30-1. The filly DREAMING OF ANNA went from 100-1 to 150-1. E Z WARRIOR from 35-1 to 40-1. STARBASE from 150-1 to 200-1. TORINI from 175-1 to 225-1. WEATHER WARNING from 100-1 to 200-1.
Check out Johnny Avello's exclusive Wynn Las Vegas Future Book Odds, updated Feb. 11, here.
RUBBER-NECKING
Each week, we'll give you a race video worth a second look.
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY ranks high on most everyone's Triple Crown watch lists. To get a refresher course on why, check out the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club from last Nov. 24 at Churchill Downs (Race 11) at any number of fine online video replay services. If you're looking for a horse who likes the Churchill track and isn't afraid of a fight...
QUICK HITTERS
Brash and likeable trainer Bill Currin never met a reporter's notebook he didn't like to fill, and he's been firing great fodder this week that his STORMELLO will head for Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth in an attempt to silence an east-coast bias ... PEGASUS WIND (ankle injury) will not go in Monday's Southwest as originally mentioned by D. Wayne Lukas, and DWL instead will opt to run STARBASE. WESTWON could be headed to the Lane's End for Lukas ... SPANKEY CAME HOME reportedly raced while under the weather in the Risen Star and will be out of commission for a few weeks, trainer Sal Gonzalez has said ... Trainer Carl Nafzger opened the door for BC Juvenile champ STREET SENSE to perhaps make his return in the Rushaway at Turfway (on the Lane's End undercard), though the Hutcheson likely remains his first option.
TUNING IN
We know you'd rather be at the track than trying to figure out why your signifcant other didn't like your Valentine's present. But for those of you who now have to wait in the customer service line to return those fishing lures, each week we'll present a list of the must-watch (or record) 3-year-old races of the coming days, courtesy of TVG.
Friday, Feb. 16
Fair Grounds: allowance (Race 8, post time 4:54 p.m. eastern)
Saturday, Feb. 17
Aqueduct: allowance (Race 3, post time 1:26 p.m. eastern)
Turf Paradise: Turf Paradise Derby (Race 7, post time 5:25 p.m. eastern)
Sunland Park: Borderland Derby (Race 11, post time 6:05 p.m. eastern)
ARCHIVE
Missed a previous Countdown to the Crown? Click the date below to catch up.
- January 5, 2007
- January 12, 2007
- January 19, 2007
- January 26, 2007
- February 2, 2007
- February 9, 2007