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By JEREMY PLONK of The HorsePlayer Magazine
KENTUCKY DERBY MAY 5
PREAKNESS MAY 19
BELMONT JUNE 9
THREE THINGS YOU WON'T READ ANYWHERE ELSE
Opinions are like losing tickets: we've all had more than our fair share, and the really bad ones you should keep hidden from your wife.
1- It's never too early to second guess. Trainer Carl Nafzger recently was quoted as saying STREET SENSE will have just two preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby - the Bluegrass and a race in late February or early March. Looking above at the stakes calendar, that leaves the Fountain of Youth or Hutcheson as the only real time-frame options. I've never trained horses, played a trainer on TV or, heck, even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but, as a handicapper, there's nothing good about this two-prep path. I still vow to this day that it's what failed to get the great Point Given home in the Derby. The shame is, I dig Nafzger and his big horse.
2 - Memo to Philly Park: with all that slots money and an existing Grade 2 tag on the Pennsylvania Derby, move your $750,000 heat to January. There's no competition on the stakes calendar and your top two finishers would earn enough graded stakes money to ensure a spot in the gate in Louisville. Nobody cares about sophomores on Labor Day, but you can build a star in January that fans would follow for four months on the classics trail.
3 - Kudos to trainer Wayne Catalano for talking Oaks this week as Dreaming of Anna readies for her 2007 campaign. It's easy to daydream of the Triple Crown races, but being realistic is a far more admirable quality. And, hey, if she whistles while she works this spring, then you can always change your Churchill seating reservations from Friday to Saturday in May.
THIS WEEK'S FEARLESS FORECAST
Each week this section includes a look at what's coming this weekend (maidens, allowances, stakes), including picks of the major stakes.
A quick heads-up for Friday: Santa Anita's opener features a Bob Baffert duo of famous siblings, AIR COMMANDER (a half-bro to Medallist) and SILVER LIGHT (half-bro to Strong Contender). Aqueduct's Race 2 includes $600K Team Pletcher player POINT BLAKE and super-interesting LIBERTARIAN for Tom Albertrani, out of Shuvee winner Colonial Minstrel. The maiden race is more intriguing than the 3YO allowance later on the Big A card.
Saturday's action features a juicy stakes double with the Grade 2 San Rafael at Santa Anita and the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Both events are two-turn races at a flat mile distance, the perfect steppingstone for this time of year. But there are a slew of maiden and allowance races to keep an eye on. Let's get to those:
* Gulfstream has 3YO tilts in Races 5,6,8 and 10.
* Gulfstream's fifth, a one-mile N1X allowance could be a good barometer of top Derby hopeful HARD SPUN. Why? Dominant Delaware maiden winenr ARCATA returns for Graham Motion. He was no match for HARD SPUN two starts back. If he runs big in this tough spot, that is a major feather in 'SPUN's cap. New Bill Mott acquisition POINT GOLD has been training great at Payson since leaving Louisiana; OUR SACRED HONOR (Team Pletcher) exits a dead-heat win with John Ward's TORINI, ranked in my Top 20 nationally; MISTER WHITE SOX is another Kiaran McLaughlin charge with South American breeding ties ala Invasor. George Steinbrenner's debut winner KING ALLIANCE exits a slow Calder score for Nick Zito.
* Gulfstream's sixth is a 7-furlong maiden event that is very intriguing. Shadwell Stable lets loose rookie SAMHOON, a $1.4 million colt by A.P. Indy out of Key to My Heart (who is full-sister to BC Sprint champion Eillo). Who knows how that mix of classic distance and blinding bottom-side speed will mesh. Zito fires with a pair of $200,000-plus rookie buys, ROCK PULPIT (working stronger of the duo) and ADVANCED SIGN, while Tom Albertrani debuts CAME TO PASS (Came Home out of Easy Goer mare).
* Gulfsteam's eighth is a Who's Who of Classic-winning trainers: McPeek, Albertrani, Zito and Matz all taking part in the N1X allowance at one mile. Mike Matz's hope for a second straight Derby win likely rests with CHELOKEE, a 13-length Delaware maiden winner who came back to run a solid second in ALW company at Churchill in November. Nick Zito's promising SILVER EXPRESS debuted second to eventual graded stakes winner BELGRAVIA before punching home at CD. He's training lights-out for the '07 return. The ever-present Albertrani has PORT CLYDE coming off a blowout win at Aqueduct, while Team Pletcher's MERITOCRACY got better with each start at 2.
* Finally, Gulfstream's 10th matches five interesting rookies against Zito's debut-second SOURPOWER, who also is entered Friday. Of the rookies, MANDURAH for Darley Stable raises eyebrows. By A.P. Indy, he's out of Morning Pride, a mare whose female family includes superstars like Swain, Fantastic Light and Seaside Attraction. Eoin Harty trains. Ken McPeek's STALWART WOODSMAN is working like a good thing, and draws the intriguing and rare jockey assignment with John Velazquez.
* Santa Anita's sixth looks weak for potential routers, but the maiden heat includes a trio of firsters for Team Baffert, including TEXAS VOYAGER, who could turn out to be Bob's Big Boy in the sprint ranks this year. Sharp pinhooker Murray Smith owns, a great sign.
* Aqueduct's second also looks like a sprinter's lot, with Mark Hennig's second-time starter FIVE DEMON BAG the best Triple Crown hope in the bunch. PASS THE PUNCH for Kiaran McLaughlin will be a short price and a certain sprinter.
* Turfway's eighth looks like an easy, now or never, maiden spot for Dale Romans' ANTE UP to throw his hat into the potential stakes ring.
Stakes Previews
LECOMTE (FG): My current No. 7 (HARD SPUN), No. 8 (MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN) and No. 17 (TONY TERRIFIC) nationally rated sophomores are among a wicked-good field of seven. Toss in 8-time Fair Grounds leading trainer Tom Amoss' capable IZZIE'S HALO and the distance-limited, but talented TEUFLESBERG, and you've got one of the more intriguing January races in the middle of the country in some time.
Hold up on the Smarty Jones comparisons with HARD SPUN for a bit. Yes, he debuted in the mid-Atlantic and rolled to the Pennsylvania Nursery title. But Smarty went :21-4/5, :44-1/5, 1:08-3/5 and 1:21-4/5 in his Nursery, while Spun clocked in at :23, :46, 1:11 and 1:23-4/5.
Calling spades what they are, this is a brutal handicapping chore. TEUFLESBERG will be sent hard from the outside post 7 with a short run to the first turn, ensuring a solid pace. HARD SPUN and MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN also want to be right up in the mix, along with IZZIE'S HALO. Late-running TONY TERRIFIC should have a puncher's chance with that long Fair Grounds stretch, but the 1-mile distance probably isn't his bucket of oats after routing on grass. What you have is a situation where HARD SPUN doesn't have to win; I think his connections are thinking of frying bigger fish. TONY TERRIFIC would move forward with a solid, top 3-4 finish showing interest and build toward a strong Louisiana Derby shot. That leaves TEUFLESBERG and MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN with the most to play for, the former because a 1-mile Grade 3 stakes IS his Derby, and the latter because he's got to prove that he could be the next War Emblem. I'm skeptical of TEUFLESBERG around 2 turns, especially with pace presence from a good horse on the rail like the 'CAPTAIN, who gets a 6-pound weight break.
SAN RAFAEL (SA): None of the 7 entrants are ranked among my Top 20 this week, but I'll admit to having a thing for SILENT SOUL, my top pick in the Hollywood Futurity who keeps getting better and will win something big this year. He could jump up into the Top 20 at a very high ranking with a breakout performance either this weekend or down the road. GRAPELLI has the genes (Thunder Gulch-Bella Bellucci) to be any kind for Team Pletcher, but I have reservations about him starting last year with the B-team at Monmouth and not shacking up at Saratoga. And why did it take him 21 days to return to the worktab after his Hollywood maiden win? Bob Baffert's TENFOLD tries to do the Triple Crown march in January - this will be his third race in five weeks! The Tiznow colt loses Garrett Gomez to GRAPELLI in this contest. Doug O'Neill has slumped early in the SA meeting, and goes to the blinkers with NOTIONAL after an abolutely unpredictable slow start in the Hollywood Futurity. The son of In Excess looks short of classic distances, so this just may be his Derby Day - there aren't many flat-mile Grade 2s out there for sophomores. Hence, the win-now move with the hood.
Lecomte Picks:
1- #1 MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN
2- #3 HARD SPUN
3- #6 TONY TERRIFIC
San Rafael Picks:
1- #3 NOTIONAL
2- #2 SILENT SOUL
3- #4 GRAPELLI
How'd we do last week? 3 races, 2 on-top winners (Carnacks Choice, $7.00, Turfway Prevue; E Z Warrior, $3.00, San Miguel) and a 2nd choice winner (Pink Viper, $18.40, Count Fleet).
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EVERYONE'S A CRITIC
Each week this section includes analysis of last week's major races, allowances, maidens.
The obvious star of last weekend's action shined bright in San Miguel winner E Z WARRIOR. Bob Baffert's $1.2 million sales buy broke smoothly into stride from the rail , raced under a snug, knuckles-down on the neck hold from David Flores while taking heat, and opened up through the stretch while the whip never once was even turned up. He went in :21.60, :22.50 and :24.72, clocking 6 furlongs in 1:08.82 (a solid older allowance group went in 1:08.53 later in the card). Following a six-month layoff, you couldn't ask for more - the last thing you want is a lay-it-down final quarter with a horse returning from shin woes. Despite his small stature, Baffert puts E Z in good company, "He's small, but Smarty Jones was small, and he was a freak of nature, too. We're hoping he can be the next Smarty Jones." The next stakes spot on the SoCal calendar would be the 7-furlong San Vicente on Feb. 11, but don't be surprised if they wait for the 1-1/16 miles San Felipe on March 17. If he proves himself around two turns there, he'd be set up perfectly for the Santa Anita Derby and a three-prep campaign heading to Louisville if good enough, and key with this horse (and most extremely fast horses), healthy enough. As for others in the San Miguel, HURRY UP AUSTIN played the hand dealt him very well to finish second with a rail-skimming close. He looks useful, but unspectacular; NOBLE COURT was nosed for second after looming dangerously four-wide at the quarter pole. It was a disappointing effort from the John Sadler trainee, but not the end of the world; DESERT CODE, as we penned here last week, wasn't trained hard for this race and pressed three-wide while never really laying down on his belly and getting after it. Give him a serious look around two turns, especially if a N1X allowance turns up.
Turfway Prevue winner CARNACKS CHOICE looked very professional and showed guts with a rail re-rally to win the 6-1/2 furlong sprint. The Carson City colt finishes all of his sprints with energy and will be tough when spotted realistically. Can't endorse him for the classics, but he looks like a horse who would absolutely relish a seven-furlong or one-turn mile chance against better (Gotham, anyone?). Runner-up JOE GOT EVEN came into the race, and left it, as its best classics prospect. No shame in his strong second, and he split the field in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club going long. Outside of the shippers, the Phil Sims trainee should be the top local Lane's End threat come March.
The Count Fleet went to a determined PINK VIPER for Paraneck Stable, who broke well, relaxed behind a gung-ho pacesetter and then handled his business down the lane. However, he was easily passed in the gallop out and looks to be a horse that was in the right place at the right time from a handicapping standpoint. We liked him last week, but not down the road. Favorite JOHANNESBURG STAR was coming off that 102 Beyer that had little-known Joe Parker's cellphone buzzing. He sat a PT (perfect trip) fourth behind a legitimate pace, then moved 4-wide mid-turn only to lose his oomph down the stretch when looking like a runaway winner. He had little leg action the last eighth of a mile. His stock is falling, but don't totally dismiss just yet. That John Alden pedigree on the bottom side will get him home in a distance stakes, it's just a matter of what level. Kiaran McLaughlin's NO REPLY remains the only marginal classics hope from this race. The son of Travers champ Deputy Commander was shuffled back at the start, stuck down on the rail behind horses into the far turn, had to angle out at the quarter-pole and then raced awkwardly through the lane. Draw a line through this one and bet him back vs. similar. As for big plans, you have to wonder why he's in NY and not FL with the barn's big-wigs.
At Gulfstream, Sunday's Spectacular Bid victor BUFFALO MAN punched his ticket as a two-turn and one-turn stakes winner. Cam Gambolati (of Spend A Buck fame) said his sophomore could reappear in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3 or in an OBS-restricted stakes in Ocala on Feb. 12. The El Prado colt merits another two-turn look before making any declarations. I promise everyone and their mother-in-law will be touting OUT OF GWEDDA after a stop-and-go traffic trip. Problem is, the Team Pletcher charge, who was returning from a July layoff after going awry in his front left leg, never appeared to have the acceleration needed to get himself in and out of what should not have been as troubled a trip. I'll bet against him next time and take my chances.
Away from the stakes action, turf maiden winner SPANISH INFLUENCE looked fantastic for Everest Stables and Marcelo Polanco in winning Saturday's downhill sprint. He cornered powerfully, which is tough for any horse on the downhill, and ran hard with his head down the entire way while widening. By Petionville out of a Seattle Slew mare, who say's he won't do dirt? The question will be, "Can he relax and spread the wealth over a distance?" Again on the SA grass, watch out for Team Pletcher's impressive route closer BLUES STREET. He won Sunday's sixth with a furious finish, and has a solid dirt try at Meadowlands on his resume. He's by Street Cry, who is turning out to be a doozy of a young sire.
Last weekend's only other Gulfstream appetizer came with Saturday's fifth, a six-furlong maiden sprint in which the 1-2-3-4 finishers pretty much carouseled around the course in that order. Kiaran McLaughlin registered a debut win with GREEN SECRET, an Unbridled's Song homebred for Darley. The ordinary time of 1:10.75 and :25.35 final quarter makes this an unispiring maiden heat for the future, especially when you consider it was a no-passing zone despite a creepy-crawly final two furlongs.
PUT 'EM IN THE GATE
Can't wait for May 5? This section ranks my Top 20 and puts horses in the gate if the race was this weekend. Remember, this isn't about how they'll be on Derby Day, but rather how they rate today with Derby ability at 1-1/4 miles a main factor. This will be a fluid list over the course of the spring.
Think I'm off my rocker? Send your Top 20 list to me, plonk@horseplayerdaily.com, and I'll pick one fan's list each week to appear in Countdown to the Crown right next to mine. Please put "TOP 20" in the subject line and include your state of residence!
I'm moving E Z WARRIOR up a few slots this week from No. 16 to 12, but otherwise remaining pat. STREET SENSE has me awful nervous with this talk of only two preps. Stay tuned in future weeks.
Jeremy's Rankings:
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1 |
Street Sense |
6 |
Any Given Saturday |
11 |
Circular Quay |
16 |
Ravel |
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2 |
Nobiz Like Shobiz |
7 |
Hard Spun |
12 |
E Z Warrior |
17 |
Tony Terrific |
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3 |
Zanjero |
8 |
Makeithapencaptain |
13 |
First Defence |
18 |
Chelokee |
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4 |
Shermanesque |
9 |
Scat Daddy |
14 |
Birdbirdistheword |
19 |
Lawrence the Roman |
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5 |
Great Hunter |
10 |
Tiz Wonderful |
15 |
Stormello |
20 |
Torini |
Reader Rankings (By Dennis R. in Arizona):
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1 |
Great Hunter |
6 |
Circular Quay |
11 |
First Defence |
16 |
Vicarino |
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2 |
Nobiz Like Shobiz |
7 |
Scat Daddy |
12 |
Pegasus Wind |
17 |
Cobalt Blue |
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3 |
E Z Warrior |
8 |
Tiz Wonderful |
13 |
Minefield |
18 |
Belgravia |
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4 |
Street Sense |
9 |
Horse Greeley |
14 |
Hard Spun |
19 |
Day Pass |
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5 |
Stormello |
10 |
Liquidity |
15 |
Les Grands Trois |
20 |
Malt Magic |
SEND IN THE CLONES
Each week I provide a horse of the week that looks similar in form/style/performance to a familiar name in the past, giving fans a reference point on a particular horse.
VICARINO sure stirs memories of the late, great Lost In The Fog. Trained by Fog's mentor, Greg Gilchrest, this lightening-fast sophomore has won three of four starts, his only loss by a nose, including two stakes wins. At Fresno last year, he set a track record of six furlongs in a whoa-daddy 1:07-1/5. While Gilchrest was contemplating stretching this horse out in the California Derby, he's gone on the record of saying that it's probably not the prudent thing to do. Instead, VICARINO could be redirected to the Feb. 3 Swale at Gulfstream, a race won last year by...you guessed it...Lost in the Fog.
PEDIGREE-SCHMEDIGREE
With the abliteration of pedigree in Triple Crown handicapping this decade, we'll point out a horse each week who isn't as "short" as you might think. We'll also give kudos to the well-bred lot here.
At Turfway on Wednesday night, Paul McGee's FIVE STAR DAWN blew away a maiden sprint field despite a 5-wide trip. He strided strongly through the wire and galloped out very well, looking better than the clock would indicate. By a sprint sire, it's unlikely that FIVE STAR DAWN will amount to a 10-furlong runner, but the talented McGee developed Don't Get Mad and Suave to be successful stakes runners with vastly different running styles.
Oh, by the way, in that same race, Grade 1 winner First Samurai's half-brother, BLACKFOOT TRAIL, announced he won't be making any stakes reservations after another dull effort. Sometimes, those genes just don't fit.
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WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS...
This section highlights the steamers and dead horses in the Las Vegas future book odds.
No major shake-ups on the board this week at Wynn Las Vegas. Interesting to see the discrepancy in the Lecomte runners that surely will take on an all-new look after the race. If you like one or more of them, the advice is to play before post time Saturday in the futures. For instance, TONY TERRIFIC is 175-1, while HARD SPUN 25-1.
Check out Johnny Avello's exclusive Wynn Las Vegas Future Book Odds, updated Jan. 7, here.
RUBBER-NECKING
Each week, we'll give you a race video worth a second look.
If you saw BUFFALO MAN win the Spectacular Bid sprinting last week at Gulfstream and think he's a one-turn pony, may I direct your attention to Meadowlands' Race 7 on Novemeber 11. If you have a race video-on-demand subscription with any one of a number of services, watch how he explodes when called upon at the top of the lane of the two-turn Storm Cat Stakes. In a word: impressive.
QUICK HITTERS
Remsen champ NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ worked Sunday in 1:01-2/5 at Gulfstream Park ... BC Juvenile Fillies winner DREAMING OF ANNA looks to be headed to the Feb. 25 Gaily Gaily on turf at Gulfstream after putting in a strong workout at Palm Meadows earlier this week ... BC Juvenile runner-up CIRCULAR QUAY drilled five furlongs Sunday at Hollywood Park in 1:00-3/5 ... Bob Baffert worked under-achieving sophs MALT MAGIC and AIR COMMANDER (who runs Friday at SA) in company with G1-winning sprint mare Pussycat Doll, which sounds like serious business.
TUNING IN
We know you'd rather be at the track than visiting your uncle Morty and enduring the stories about his pesky prostate. But for those stuck on the outside looking in, each week we'll present a list of the must-watch (or record) races of the coming days, courtesy of TVG.
Friday, January 12
Aqueduct: maiden special weight (Race 2, post time 12:58 eastern)
Saturday, January 13
Fair Grounds: Lecomte Stakes (Race 9, post time 5: 22 p.m. eastern)
Aqueduct: maiden special weight (Race 2, post time 12:58 eastern)
Turfway Park: maiden special weight (Race 8, post time 4:24 p.m. eastern)
ARCHIVE: Missed a previous Countdown to the Crown? Click the date below to catch up.
- January 5, 2007