Thursday Aug 21, 2008

When It's Safe to Ignore Mediocre Prep Races Few top thoroughbreds are able to win all the stepping stones on the way to the big event. Take notice when top trainers persevere with a stakes contender despite losses in prep races prior to a major objective. In evaluating fields for key stakes events, don't fixate on winners of that final prep race. A big effort in the prep race often empties the tank. This is especially true when the big prep win is also that horse's biggest career triumph to date. An additional step up the ladder may be too much to ask for, and the odds are sure to be low following a bang-up performance. Never underestimate a top trainer's ability to bring out the best in a horse when it counts the most. Few horses manage to produce a winning streak, much less in major stakes events. Few connections can successfully aim their horse's campaign to fire on the right day. Horses and connections that can manage their biggest effort on the right day can deliver solid value at the windows. Having missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury, A. P. Indy maintained a 7-race win streak, climaxing in a Belmont Stakes win. Following this effort, trainer Neil Drysdale knew that only a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic could gain his colt top Horse of the Year or even Three Year Old honors. After giving A. P. Indy the summer off, the horse was beaten in both the Molson Million (5th) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (3rd). Nevertheless, Drysdale remained focused on the Breeders' Cup Classic as the ultimate goal of his fall campaign. A. P. Indy won the race in a handride, securing both Three Year Old and Horse of the Year honors. Key signs that unsuccessful prep races should be ignored: - When handicapping a high-profile graded stakes (such as the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships or Triple Crown events), identify horses that ran well despite losing in their most recent starts. Accept any horse that finished in-the-money or within several lengths of the winner as a potential contender. - Award extra credit to horses trained by horsemen known for bringing out the best in a runner when it counts the most. Bob Baffert, Carl Nafzger, D. Wayne Lukas, Neil Drysdale and Bill Mott are some well-known examples. - Be skeptical of chronic losers from high-profile connections that have been in this position before and failed to rise to the occasion. Often they become wise-guy horses following seemingly useful prep races. Requirements to Ignore Mediocre Preps: - Play horses in premier stakes events that ran well but failed to win their prior start. - Trust that connections known to produce peak efforts on top days are likely to have starters ready for career-best performances when it counts the most. - Avoid chronic losers that have already proven unlikely to give a great performance following the losing dress rehearsal. - Pass on horses that are betting favorites despite otherwise fitting the criteria mentioned above. This angle seeks plausible upsetters, not trip-horse favorites that have somehow attracted the public's interest.

Spur of the Moment fans: be sure to check out Dean Arnold's first handicapping book. A Bettor Way on sale now through Xlibris Publishing and at most major online book sellers. Click here. (www.xlibris.com/abettorway.html)